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March 18, 2024 10:00 PM UTC
BoJ the main focus
Majority expect no change in policy which would likely mean small JPY decline
The minority view of a rate hike this month would have a bigger JPY positive impact
Canadian CPI to weigh modestly on the CAD
GBP vulnerable as positions reached new highs
March 18, 2024 7:12 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.4% in January, matching an estimate made with December’s report. This would be the strongest rise since January 2023, but the strong year ago data would still see yr/yr growth slipping, to 0.8% from 1.1%.
March 18, 2024 4:20 PM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank has accepted that it can and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. In its last decision, at the start of February, keeping policy at 4%, albeit increasing the pace of bond sales from SEK 5 billion to 6.5 billion per
March 18, 2024 2:57 PM UTC
We expect a February new home sales total of 690k, which would be a 4.4% increase if January’s 1.5% increase to 661k is unrevised. This would be a third straight increase if still below 2023’s high of 728k seen in July.
March 18, 2024 2:12 PM UTC
We expect February housing starts to rise by 18.0% to 1570k after a 14.8% January decline that was probably due to bad weather. We expect permits, less sensitive to weather, to rise by 1.4% to 1510k after falling by 0.3% in January.
March 18, 2024 12:35 PM UTC
We expect February Canadian CPI to pause after seeing a significant dip in January, rising to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.9% in January, though still below December’s stronger 3.4%. We expect only marginal progress lower on the BoC’s core rates to follow more significant progress seen in January.
March 18, 2024 8:28 AM UTC
The February monthly data shows unbalanced growth. Industrial production and public investment picked up, but retail sales slowed and residential property remains a negative drag on GDP. While H1 GDP growth will be ok, it will likely slow in H2 and we still stick to a forecast of 4.4% for 2024 a
March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%.
March 18, 2024 5:16 AM UTC
Asia Session
The BoJ meeting will be conducted from Monday to Tuesday and market participants should be ready for any "leaks" coming out as they will be market moving. Some big names are forecasting a hike in the March meeting but we feel like the BoJ is in no rush to hike with headline CPI moderatin