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April 03, 2025
U.S. March ISM Services - Slowing consistent with regional surveys
03 April 2025 - 14:24
March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.
ECB March Meeting Account – More Focus on Downside Risks than those on the Upside?
03 April 2025 - 14:22
The Account of the Governing Council meeting on 5-6 March 2025 seemingly dwelt more on the downside risks posted by trade uncertainties than the upside risks posed by fiscal expansion plans across much of the EU. It noted that not all members supported the proposal to lower the three key ECB inter
U.S. February Trade Deficit remains very high, Initial Claims still low
03 April 2025 - 13:13
Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.
Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January and February, but slower than November and December
03 April 2025 - 12:01
We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn
U.S. Tariffs - the EZ/EU Response?
03 April 2025 - 10:24
The U.S is imposing a widespread tariff on the EU of 20%, higher and broader than expected, this based on U.S. calculation of an effective tariff rate of in effect 39 per cent, a figure the EU puts at about 1 per cent. Moreover, rather than including factors such as VAT, and hygiene restrictions o
April 02, 2025
USD flows: Mixed tariff bag, some relief for Canada and Mexico, Japan and EU hit
02 April 2025 - 21:30
The Trump tariff announcement is a mixed bag, with some relief for Canada and Mexico but aggressive action on Japan and the EU, as well as several developing nations. The net impact is probably not much off expectations for the US economy, which will face somewhat higher inflation and somewhat slo
Preview: Due April 15 - Canada March CPI - Another acceleration as sales tax holiday ends
02 April 2025 - 15:43
We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.