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February 27, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 28th
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 22:00

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

North American Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

27 February 2025 - 20:39

Overview - The USD was stronger after Trump stated tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go ahead on March 4. 

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Brazil: Some Deceleration on Labour Markets, But Still Strong
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 19:53

Brazil's labor data through January indicates a slight deceleration in job creation, with annual net formal job growth at 1.6 million, above the 1.4 million registered in July 2023. While the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.5%, it remains lower than January 2024. Admission salaries are growing

Chart USD/CAD Update: Strong resistance at 1.4470/00
Freemium Article

27 February 2025 - 16:52

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp USD- and CAD-driven bounce

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to remain wide, both exports and imports to rise
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 16:25

We expect an advance January goods trade deficit of $122.1bn, up marginally from a record $122.0bn seen in December. While we expect exports to rebound from a weak December, we also expect imports to see a third straight strong gain.

Preview: Due February 28 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A solid quarter outside weaker inventories
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 16:10

We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to rise by 1.7% annualized, marginally below a 1.8% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s January Monetary Policy Report but with positive details outside inventories. We expect a 0.1% increase in December GDP, slightly below a 0.2% estimate made with November’s data.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 28th
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 16:09

EUR may fall further on CPI
End of month likely to be USD positive
US PCE unlikely to move the market
CAD vulnerable but GDP may be supportive

Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 15:53

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Pending Home Sales - Very weak, but may soon stabilize
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 15:13

Pending home sales with a 4.6% January decline have seen a second straight steep decline, taking the index below the low seen at the height of the pandemic in April 2020, more than fully reversing the four straight gains in the months to November. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 15:03

Cautious trade around 0.6300 has given way to further losses

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating - studies leaning lower
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 14:46

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 157.00 has given way to a pullback

U.S. Fed's Schmid - More cautious about inflation
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 14:36

Fed's Schmid is concerrned with recent data from inflation, and inflation expectations

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Argentina: Recovery Complete?
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 14:32

Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test higher
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 14:29

Little change, as prices extend consolidation 

U.S. Initial Claims rise may have multiple explanations, GDP revision sees core PCE prices higher, Durables rise on aircraft
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 14:12

A sharp rise in initial claims to 242k from 220k is likely to have been influenced by Federal Government layoffs, though weather and seasonal adjustments may also have played a part. Q4 GDP was unrevised at 2.3% but core PCE prices were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%. A 3.1% rise in January durable go

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Potential for a test higher
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 14:10

Cautious trade has given way to a reactive break higher

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ECB Preview (Mar 6): Gauging Restrictiveness as Policy to be Eased Further
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 13:55

As has been the case at most recent Council meetings, the ECB verdict is less important that the rhetoric. A sixth 25 bp discount rate is widely expected, to 2.5%, but how wide the door is left open for further cuts may be gleaned from any clear change in regard to how near(er) neutral policy the Co

USD flows: Mixed US data, JPY could benefit
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 13:44

Mixed Us data but initial claims rise may be most significant. If so, JPY favoured

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Poised for further losses
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 12:39

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh selling interest

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - potential for a test above 18.5000
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 12:00

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for a test below 1.5000
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 11:38

The test above strong resistance at the 1.5070 Fibonacci retracement has been pushed back from beneath congestion resistance at 1.5100

Psychology for major markets February 27th
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 11:11

USD remins under a little pressure generally but commodity currencies struggling. Tariff news awaited

Europe Summary and Highlights 27 February
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 11:05

The USD was mostly little changed through the European morning, but gained ground against the JPY and CHF.

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Country Risk in MENA
Freemium Article

27 February 2025 - 11:00

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Syria and Turkiye. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 27th
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 09:53

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2025
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 09:52

Data and Events Calendar March 2025.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 09:14

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 09:09

The test of support at the 0.8900 break level and the 0.8910 Fibonacci retracement is giving way to a bounce

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 08:51

The anticipated minor test above congestion resistance at 0.8300 has not been seen

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 08:38

The test above resistance at 1.0500 has been pushed back from the 1.0533 current year high of 27 January

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending range trade
Freemium Article

27 February 2025 - 08:23

The test above congestion resistance at 1.2700 has been pushed back from 1.2715

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Range-bound above 188.07 support
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 07:57

No change, with prices confined within a narrow range above the 188.07 support

CAD flows: CAD looks vulnerable
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 07:51

CAD looks vulnerable with tariff threat looming

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Weighing on the 94.00/93.60 support
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 07:48

Prices remains under pressure and break of the 94.30 low extend losses to reach 94.00/93.60 support

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 07:31

 Little change, with prices confined to range above the 1.1050 support and tracing out a bear flag from the 1.1150/1.1180 highs

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 07:01

Break above the 1.6600/33 resistance see prices extending bounce from the 1.6355 low of last week

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending bounce from 7.2260 low
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 05:34

Extending bounce from the 7.2260 low as prices unwind oversold daily studies

Asia Summary and Highlights 27 February
Freemium Article

27 February 2025 - 05:33

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent
The broad risk sentiment is sour

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending bounce from 86.4600 low
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 05:25

Consolidation above the 86.4600 low has seen rebound to regain the 87.0000 level

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 27th
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 05:07

More data on Thursday, albeit second tier
Some mild upside risks to the US numbers
European data likely to be mixed
USD may also benefit from end of month demand

Chart USD/MYR Update: Higher in consolidation from 4.4000 level
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 05:04

Turned up from the 4.4000 level to open up room for retest of the 4.4540 resistance

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Sour
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 04:23

The broad risk sentiment is sour

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending bounce
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 03:28

 Extending bounce from the 16169 low to reach strong resistance at the 16384/16400 high and congestion area

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending bounce from 33.37 low
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 03:18

Break above the 33.50/33.65 resistance see prices extending gains from the 33.37 low

USD/JPY flows: Consolidating recent movement
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 02:35

US Treasury Sec Bessent says he's dedicated to making Trump's tax cuts permanent

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending bounce from 1425.00 low
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 02:17

Extending bounce from the 1425.00 low as daily studies unwind oversold readings to correct losses from the 1472.00, 3 February high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Room for stronger corrective bounce
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 02:05

Bounce from 1.3312 low has seen test of the 1.3400 level as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart GBP/USD Update: Limited above the 1.2700 level
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 01:43

No follow-through on break of the 1.2700 level but pressure remains on the upside

Chart EUR/USD Update: Lower in consolidation from the 1.0500/1.0533 resistance
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 01:27

Settling back from retest of the 1.0500/33 resistance and January YTD high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, but room for lower
Paying Article

27 February 2025 - 01:12

No follow-through on break of the 156.16/00 support as prices settled into consolidation above the 155.80 low of last week