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France and Japan: Debt Fuelled Growth Problem
May 16, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Most of the surge in debt/GDP in Japan and 40% in France is due to higher government debt and this should not be a binding constraint provided that large scale QT is avoided – we see the ECB slowing QT in 2025 and are skeptical about BOJ QT in the next few years. The adverse impact of higher deb
Asset Allocation 2024: Tricky Seven Months Remaining
May 10, 2024 1:06 PM UTC
Fed easing expectations for 2025 and 2026 can shift from a terminal 4% Fed Funds rate towards 3%, as the U.S. economy slows due to lagged tightening effects. Combined with Fed easing starting in September this should mean a consistent decline in 2yr yields. However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields wil
China Equities: A Tactical Play
May 8, 2024 2:20 PM UTC
China equities can see a tactical bounce of 5-10% in the coming months. Cheap valuations and underweight global fund positions means that the scale of pessimism only has to get less bad on the economy and China authorities attitude towards businesses. While we see a tactical opportunity, we do
FOMC Preview For May 1: Signaling Concern on Inflation, Tapering Quantitative Tightening
April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
The Pulse of the Nation: Insights into India's 2024 Election
April 22, 2024 7:54 AM UTC
As India braces itself for the upcoming elections, the political landscape is rife with anticipation, strategy, and uncertainty. With the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeking to consolidate its power and a diverse coalition of opposition forces vying for a chance to unseat them, the stage is
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
May 17, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback followed the post CPI drop initially before rebounding in the New York session. KRW saw the largest gains of 1.79%, followed by THB 1.09%, IDR 0.65%, TWD 0.61%, MYR 0.5%, PHP 0.12% and HKD 0.11%; the biggest losers are
U.S. April Industrial Production - Underlying picture looks flat
May 16, 2024 1:31 PM UTC
April industrial production was unchanged with a downward revision to March offset by an upward revision to February. Manufacturing was weak at -0.3% though outside a negative correction in autos the drop was only 0.1%, leaving a fairly flat underlying picture.
Brazil: Possible Impacts of the Floods
May 16, 2024 1:07 PM UTC
Unprecedented floods in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that contributes 6.4% to Brazil's GDP and 13.3% to its agricultural production, have submerged several cities. The immediate halt in economic activity may reduce Brazil's Q2 GDP by up to 0.4%. The federal government is increasing aid, potentially ra
U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed - No real surprises but consistent with a modest slowing
May 16, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
The latest data is all close to consensus, initial claims partially correcting a sharp rise last week, housing starts correcting a sharp fall last month but permits seeing a second straight dip while the Philly Fed corrected from a strong preceding month but remains positive. All this is consisten